TR
Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Ligue 1 · Matchday 7Sunday 18 October · 14:00 · Stade Raymond Kopa
Angers15th place
Full time2-5Rinvalo's pick: 0-1✓ Result correct
Marseille6th place
ANG 26%X 26%OM 48%

What does the market say?

AngersDrawMarseilleRinvalo26%26%48%
Market30%25%45%

✓ Agree · both back Marseille

Prediction

Predicted: 0-1
Key factors
  • Marseille lead by 86 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Marseille -0.1, Angers -0.6.
  • If Angers score first, they win 56% of the time
  • If Marseille score first, they win 74% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.1 – 1.6
Over 2.550%
Both teams score54%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Marseille win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
126%3.85X26%3.86248%2.08
Double chance
1X52%1.93X274%1.351274%1.35
Goals
Over 2.550%1.98Under 2.550%2.02BTTS yes54%1.85BTTS no46%2.17

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Angers · Columns: Marseille2-5 probability 0.4% · final score

Form

Compare →
AngersWLLDL

Head to head

Angers – Marseille18 October 20262-5
Angers – Marseille17 January 20262-5
Marseille – Angers29 October 20252-2
Angers – Marseille9 February 20250-2
Marseille – Angers4 October 20241-1
Marseille – Angers14 May 20233-1