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Ligue 1 · Matchday 7Saturday 17 October · 16:15 · Stade de la Meinau
Strasbourg13th place
Full time1-3Rinvalo's pick: 1-2✓ Result correct
Paris Saint-Germain1st place
STR 19%X 22%PSG 58%

What does the market say?

StrasbourgDrawParis Saint-GermainRinvalo19%22%58%
Market15%18%68%

✓ Agree · both back Paris Saint-Germain

Prediction

Predicted: 1-2
Key factors
  • Paris Saint-Germain lead by 119 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Paris Saint-Germain 0.7, Strasbourg -0.4.
  • Paris Saint-Germain take 2.0 points per game away.
  • If Strasbourg score first, they win 45% of the time
  • If Paris Saint-Germain score first, they win 79% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals1.2 – 2.1
Over 2.564%
Both teams score62%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Paris Saint-Germain win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
119%5.16X22%4.47258%1.72
Double chance
1X42%2.40X281%1.241278%1.29
Goals
Over 2.564%1.55Under 2.536%2.80BTTS yes62%1.62BTTS no38%2.61

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Strasbourg · Columns: Paris Saint-Germain1-3 probability 7.0% · final score

Form

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Head to head

Strasbourg – Paris Saint-Germain17 October 20261-3
Strasbourg – Paris Saint-Germain1 February 20261-2
Paris Saint-Germain – Strasbourg17 October 20253-3
Strasbourg – Paris Saint-Germain3 May 20252-1
Paris Saint-Germain – Strasbourg19 October 20244-2
Strasbourg – Paris Saint-Germain2 February 20241-2