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Ligue 1 · Matchday 7Sunday 18 October · 16:15 · Stade Jean-Bouin
Paris FC4th place
Full time4-3Rinvalo's pick: 2-1✓ Result correct
Rennes5th place
PFC 48%X 27%REN 25%

What does the market say?

Paris FCDrawRennesRinvalo48%27%25%
Market41%27%32%

✓ Agree · both back Paris FC

Prediction

Predicted: 2-1
Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Paris FC 0.9, Rennes -0.3.
  • Paris FC take 2.2 points per game at home.
  • If Paris FC score first, they win 74% of the time
  • If Rennes score first, they win 55% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.7 – 1.2
Over 2.554%
Both teams score57%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Paris FC win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
148%2.08X27%3.74225%3.96
Double chance
1X75%1.34X252%1.921273%1.36
Goals
Over 2.554%1.84Under 2.546%2.19BTTS yes57%1.75BTTS no43%2.33

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Paris FC · Columns: Rennes4-3 probability 0.5% · final score

Form

Compare →
RennesLWLWL

Head to head

Paris FC – Rennes18 October 20264-3
Rennes – Paris FC10 May 20262-1
Paris FC – Rennes7 November 20250-1