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Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Ligue 1 · Matchday 7Sunday 18 October · 19:45 · Groupama Stadium
Lyon3rd place
Full time2-1Rinvalo's pick: 2-0✓ Result correct
Nice8th place
OL 64%X 22%NIC 14%

What does the market say?

LyonDrawNiceRinvalo64%22%14%
Market56%23%20%

✓ Agree · both back Lyon

Prediction

Predicted: 2-0
Key factors
  • Lyon lead by 159 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Lyon 2.2 points per game, Nice 1.0.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Lyon 0.4, Nice -0.5.
  • If Lyon score first, they win 85% of the time
  • If Nice score first, they win 41% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals2.0 – 0.8
Over 2.553%
Both teams score49%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
164%1.56X22%4.52214%7.29
Double chance
1X86%1.16X236%2.791278%1.28
Goals
Over 2.553%1.89Under 2.547%2.13BTTS yes49%2.06BTTS no51%1.95

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Lyon · Columns: Nice2-1 probability 9.8% · final score

Form

Compare →
LyonWLWLW
NiceWWLWW

Head to head

Lyon – Nice18 October 20262-1
Lyon – Nice15 February 20262-0
Nice – Lyon18 October 20253-2
Nice – Lyon9 March 20250-2
Lyon – Nice1 December 20244-1
Lyon – Nice16 February 20241-0