TR
Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Ligue 1 · Matchday 7Saturday 17 October · 19:45 · Stade de l'Aube
Troyes16th place
Full time1-3Rinvalo's pick: 0-2✓ Result correct
Lens9th place
ETG 14%X 19%RCL 66%

What does the market say?

TroyesDrawLensRinvalo14%19%66%
Market24%24%52%

✓ Agree · both back Lens

Prediction

Predicted: 0-2
Key factors
  • Lens lead by 238 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Lens 0.7, Troyes -1.1.
  • If Troyes score first, they win 38% of the time
  • If Lens score first, they win 84% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals1.0 – 2.3
Over 2.563%
Both teams score57%
Likeliest score0-2
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
114%6.91X19%5.17266%1.51
Double chance
1X34%2.96X286%1.171281%1.24
Goals
Over 2.563%1.58Under 2.537%2.72BTTS yes57%1.76BTTS no43%2.31

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Troyes · Columns: Lens1-3 probability 7.4% · final score

Form

Compare →
TroyesLLLDW
LensLWWWL

Head to head

Troyes – Lens17 October 20261-3
Troyes – Lens28 January 20231-1
Lens – Troyes9 September 20221-0
Troyes – Lens14 May 20221-3
Lens – Troyes5 November 20214-0