TR
Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Ligue 1 · Matchday 7Saturday 17 October · 19:45 · Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy
Lille2nd place
Full time1-1Rinvalo's pick: 1-0✕ Missed
Brest10th place
LIL 55%X 26%BRE 19%

What does the market say?

LilleDrawBrestRinvalo55%26%19%
Market51%25%24%

✓ Agree · both back Lille

Prediction

Predicted: 1-0
Key factors
  • Lille lead by 125 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Lille 2.0 points per game, Brest 1.0.
  • If Lille score first, they win 80% of the time
  • If Brest score first, they win 50% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.7 – 0.9
Over 2.549%
Both teams score50%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Lille win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
155%1.83X26%3.84219%5.21
Double chance
1X81%1.24X245%2.211274%1.35
Goals
Over 2.549%2.05Under 2.551%1.96BTTS yes50%2.00BTTS no50%2.00

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Lille · Columns: Brest1-1 probability 12.2% · final score

Form

Compare →
LilleLWDDW
BrestLWDLW

Head to head

Lille – Brest17 October 20261-1
Lille – Brest14 February 20261-1
Brest – Lille17 August 20253-3
Brest – Lille10 May 20252-0
Lille – Brest6 December 20243-1
Brest – Lille17 March 20241-1