TR
Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Primeira Liga · Matchday 26Sunday 14 March · 16:00 · Estádio Municipal de Arouca
Arouca5th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Alverca10th place
ARO 46%X 28%ALV 26%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Arouca take 2.2 points per game at home.
  • If Arouca score first, they win 75% of the time
  • If Alverca score first, they win 57% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.5 – 1.0
Over 2.546%
Both teams score51%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Arouca win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
146%2.16X28%3.56226%3.90
Double chance
1X74%1.34X254%1.861272%1.39
Goals
Over 2.546%2.16Under 2.554%1.86BTTS yes51%1.96BTTS no49%2.04

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Arouca · Columns: Alverca1-1 probability 13.2%

Form

Compare →
AroucaLDWWW
AlvercaWWWLL

Head to head

Alverca – Arouca24 October 20260-1
Alverca – Arouca24 April 20262-1
Arouca – Alverca14 December 20251-0