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Primeira Liga · Matchday 26Sunday 14 March · 16:00 · Estádio do Marítimo
Marítimo14th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Medium confidence
Vitória de Guimarães13th place
MAR 25%X 26%VSC 49%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Vitória de Guimarães lead by 103 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Vitória de Guimarães 0.6, Marítimo -0.5.
  • Last 5 games: Vitória de Guimarães 1.0 points per game, Marítimo 0.2.
  • If Marítimo score first, they win 55% of the time
  • If Vitória de Guimarães score first, they win 75% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.1 – 1.6
Over 2.550%
Both teams score54%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Vitória de Guimarães win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
125%4.03X26%3.80249%2.05
Double chance
1X51%1.95X275%1.331274%1.36
Goals
Over 2.550%1.98Under 2.550%2.02BTTS yes54%1.86BTTS no46%2.16

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Marítimo · Columns: Vitória de Guimarães1-1 probability 12.6%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Vitória de Guimarães – Marítimo23 October 20265-0
Marítimo – Vitória de Guimarães29 April 20231-2
Vitória de Guimarães – Marítimo13 November 20221-0
Marítimo – Vitória de Guimarães13 March 20220-1
Vitória de Guimarães – Marítimo22 October 20212-1