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Primeira Liga · Matchday 26Sunday 14 March · 16:00 · Estádio do Dragão
Porto1st place
Rinvalo prediction1-0High confidence
Gil Vicente9th place
POR 67%X 22%GIL 11%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Porto lead by 245 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Porto 3.0 points per game, Gil Vicente 1.6.
  • Porto take 2.8 points per game at home.
  • If Porto score first, they win 88% of the time
  • If Gil Vicente score first, they win 41% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 10%
Expected goals1.8 – 0.6
Over 2.544%
Both teams score38%
Likeliest score1-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
167%1.49X22%4.57211%8.93
Double chance
1X89%1.13X233%3.021278%1.28
Goals
Over 2.544%2.30Under 2.556%1.77BTTS yes38%2.62BTTS no62%1.62

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Porto · Columns: Gil Vicente1-0 probability 15.6%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Gil Vicente – Porto24 October 20260-1
Porto – Gil Vicente26 January 20263-0
Gil Vicente – Porto18 August 20250-2
Gil Vicente – Porto19 January 20253-1
Porto – Gil Vicente10 August 20243-0
Gil Vicente – Porto25 February 20241-1