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Primeira Liga · Matchday 26Sunday 14 March · 16:00 · Estádio Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas
Moreirense8th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Estoril18th place
MOR 44%X 28%EST 28%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Last 5 games: Moreirense 2.0 points per game, Estoril 0.0.
  • Moreirense lead by 82 rating points.
  • If Moreirense score first, they win 72% of the time
  • If Estoril score first, they win 58% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.5 – 1.2
Over 2.550%
Both teams score55%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Moreirense win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
144%2.27X28%3.55228%3.58
Double chance
1X72%1.39X256%1.781272%1.39
Goals
Over 2.550%1.98Under 2.550%2.02BTTS yes55%1.83BTTS no45%2.21

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Moreirense · Columns: Estoril1-1 probability 12.9%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Estoril – Moreirense25 October 20261-3
Moreirense – Estoril20 April 20261-0
Estoril – Moreirense7 December 20253-3
Moreirense – Estoril11 May 20252-2
Estoril – Moreirense28 December 20242-2
Moreirense – Estoril18 May 20242-1