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Primeira Liga · Matchday 26Sunday 14 March · 16:00 · Estádio Municipal de Braga
Braga7th place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Nacional15th place
SCB 64%X 22%NAC 13%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Braga lead by 172 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Braga 0.6, Nacional -0.7.
  • If Braga score first, they win 85% of the time
  • If Nacional score first, they win 42% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.9 – 0.8
Over 2.551%
Both teams score47%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
164%1.56X22%4.45213%7.50
Double chance
1X87%1.15X236%2.791278%1.29
Goals
Over 2.551%1.95Under 2.549%2.05BTTS yes47%2.13BTTS no53%1.89

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Braga · Columns: Nacional2-0 probability 12.4%

Form

Compare →
BragaWDLLW

Head to head

Nacional – Braga25 October 20261-0
Nacional – Braga28 February 20261-2
Braga – Nacional28 September 20250-1
Braga – Nacional21 February 20251-0
Nacional – Braga20 September 20240-3