TR
Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Primeira Liga · Matchday 26Sunday 14 March · 16:00 · Estádio da Luz
Benfica2nd place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Santa Clara4th place
BEN 68%X 21%SCL 11%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Benfica lead by 196 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Benfica 1.5, Santa Clara 0.3.
  • Benfica take 2.4 points per game at home.
  • If Benfica score first, they win 88% of the time
  • If Santa Clara score first, they win 39% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals2.0 – 0.7
Over 2.549%
Both teams score43%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
168%1.47X21%4.77211%8.91
Double chance
1X89%1.13X232%3.111279%1.27
Goals
Over 2.549%2.02Under 2.551%1.98BTTS yes43%2.34BTTS no57%1.75

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Benfica · Columns: Santa Clara2-0 probability 13.8%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Santa Clara – Benfica26 October 20261-2
Santa Clara – Benfica13 February 20261-2
Benfica – Santa Clara12 September 20251-1
Santa Clara – Benfica15 February 20250-1
Benfica – Santa Clara14 September 20244-1
Benfica – Santa Clara27 May 20233-0