TR
Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Primeira Liga · Matchday 26Sunday 14 March · 16:00 · Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior
Casa Pia17th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Low confidence
Estrela Amadora12th place
CPA 35%X 29%EAM 36%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Estrela Amadora -0.1, Casa Pia -1.0.
  • If Casa Pia score first, they win 67% of the time
  • If Estrela Amadora score first, they win 67% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 10%
Expected goals1.2 – 1.2
Over 2.544%
Both teams score51%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Estrela Amadora win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
135%2.86X29%3.41236%2.80
Double chance
1X64%1.56X265%1.541271%1.41
Goals
Over 2.544%2.27Under 2.556%1.79BTTS yes51%1.98BTTS no49%2.02

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Casa Pia · Columns: Estrela Amadora1-1 probability 13.9%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Estrela Amadora – Casa Pia24 October 20260-2
Estrela Amadora – Casa Pia20 March 20264-0
Casa Pia – Estrela Amadora1 November 20253-5
Casa Pia – Estrela Amadora9 February 20251-0
Estrela Amadora – Casa Pia31 August 20240-1
Estrela Amadora – Casa Pia8 March 20243-1