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Primeira Liga · Matchday 22Sunday 14 February · 16:00 · Estádio Municipal de Arouca
Arouca5th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0High confidence
Estoril18th place
ARO 56%X 25%EST 19%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Arouca lead by 149 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Arouca 2.0 points per game, Estoril 0.0.
  • Arouca take 2.2 points per game at home.
  • If Arouca score first, they win 80% of the time
  • If Estoril score first, they win 48% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.8 – 1.0
Over 2.553%
Both teams score53%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Arouca win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
156%1.79X25%3.93219%5.36
Double chance
1X81%1.23X244%2.271275%1.34
Goals
Over 2.553%1.87Under 2.547%2.15BTTS yes53%1.87BTTS no47%2.14

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Arouca · Columns: Estoril1-1 probability 11.6%

Form

Compare →
AroucaLDWWW
EstorilLLLLL

Head to head

Estoril – Arouca7 September 20260-0
Arouca – Estoril6 April 20263-2
Estoril – Arouca7 November 20254-3
Arouca – Estoril16 March 20251-1
Estoril – Arouca26 October 20244-1
Estoril – Arouca20 January 20241-2