TR
Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Primeira Liga · Matchday 22Sunday 14 February · 16:00 · Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior
Casa Pia17th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Medium confidence
Vitória de Guimarães13th place
CPA 26%X 28%VSC 46%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Vitória de Guimarães 0.6, Casa Pia -1.0.
  • Vitória de Guimarães lead by 69 rating points.
  • If Casa Pia score first, they win 59% of the time
  • If Vitória de Guimarães score first, they win 75% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 11%
Expected goals1.0 – 1.4
Over 2.542%
Both teams score47%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Vitória de Guimarães win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
126%3.87X28%3.56246%2.17
Double chance
1X54%1.86X274%1.351272%1.39
Goals
Over 2.542%2.41Under 2.559%1.71BTTS yes47%2.12BTTS no53%1.89

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Casa Pia · Columns: Vitória de Guimarães1-1 probability 13.7%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Vitória de Guimarães – Casa Pia6 September 20260-0
Vitória de Guimarães – Casa Pia11 May 20260-1
Casa Pia – Vitória de Guimarães28 December 20250-0
Vitória de Guimarães – Casa Pia1 March 20251-0
Casa Pia – Vitória de Guimarães28 September 20241-1
Vitória de Guimarães – Casa Pia24 February 20240-2