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Primeira Liga · Matchday 22Sunday 14 February · 16:00 · Estádio da Madeira
Nacional15th place
Rinvalo prediction0-2High confidence
Sporting CP3rd place
NAC 10%X 17%SCP 73%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Sporting CP lead by 324 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Sporting CP 1.2, Nacional -0.7.
  • Last 5 games: Sporting CP 1.6 points per game, Nacional 0.6.
  • If Nacional score first, they win 32% of the time
  • If Sporting CP score first, they win 88% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals0.8 – 2.5
Over 2.563%
Both teams score52%
Likeliest score0-2
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
110%9.69X17%6.00273%1.37
Double chance
1X27%3.71X290%1.121283%1.20
Goals
Over 2.563%1.58Under 2.537%2.73BTTS yes52%1.94BTTS no48%2.06

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Nacional · Columns: Sporting CP0-2 probability 11.5%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Sporting CP – Nacional5 September 20262-0
Sporting CP – Nacional1 February 20262-1
Nacional – Sporting CP23 August 20251-4
Sporting CP – Nacional25 January 20252-0
Nacional – Sporting CP17 August 20241-6