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Primeira Liga · Matchday 22Sunday 14 February · 16:00 · Estádio do Rio Ave FC
Rio Ave16th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Medium confidence
Santa Clara4th place
RAV 24%X 28%SCL 49%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Santa Clara lead by 153 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Santa Clara 0.3, Rio Ave -1.0.
  • Last 5 games: Santa Clara 2.0 points per game, Rio Ave 0.8.
  • If Rio Ave score first, they win 56% of the time
  • If Santa Clara score first, they win 77% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 10%
Expected goals0.9 – 1.4
Over 2.543%
Both teams score47%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Santa Clara win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
124%4.21X28%3.62249%2.06
Double chance
1X51%1.94X276%1.311272%1.38
Goals
Over 2.543%2.35Under 2.557%1.74BTTS yes47%2.11BTTS no53%1.90

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Rio Ave · Columns: Santa Clara1-1 probability 13.4%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Santa Clara – Rio Ave6 September 20264-0
Santa Clara – Rio Ave11 April 20260-2
Rio Ave – Santa Clara30 November 20251-1
Rio Ave – Santa Clara18 April 20251-1
Santa Clara – Rio Ave7 December 20241-0
Santa Clara – Rio Ave17 March 20230-2