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Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Primeira Liga · Matchday 22Sunday 14 February · 16:00 · Estádio Municipal de Braga
Braga7th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0High confidence
Alverca9th place
SCB 57%X 25%ALV 18%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Braga lead by 85 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Braga 0.6, Alverca -0.2.
  • If Braga score first, they win 81% of the time
  • If Alverca score first, they win 48% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.8 – 0.9
Over 2.551%
Both teams score51%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Braga win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
157%1.75X25%3.99218%5.57
Double chance
1X82%1.22X243%2.331275%1.33
Goals
Over 2.551%1.97Under 2.549%2.03BTTS yes51%1.97BTTS no49%2.03

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Braga · Columns: Alverca1-1 probability 11.7%

Form

Compare →
BragaWDLLW
AlvercaLWWWL

Head to head

Alverca – Braga5 September 20261-2
Braga – Alverca25 January 20265-0
Alverca – Braga17 August 20250-3