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Primeira Liga · Matchday 22Sunday 14 February · 16:00 · Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho
Famalicão11th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Estrela Amadora12th place
FAM 52%X 27%EAM 21%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Famalicão lead by 129 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Famalicão 1.4 points per game, Estrela Amadora 0.2.
  • If Famalicão score first, they win 79% of the time
  • If Estrela Amadora score first, they win 52% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.6 – 0.9
Over 2.547%
Both teams score50%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Famalicão win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
152%1.91X27%3.72221%4.85
Double chance
1X79%1.26X248%2.101273%1.37
Goals
Over 2.547%2.12Under 2.553%1.90BTTS yes50%2.01BTTS no50%1.99

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Famalicão · Columns: Estrela Amadora1-1 probability 12.6%

Form

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Head to head

Estrela Amadora – Famalicão5 September 20262-2
Estrela Amadora – Famalicão11 May 20260-0
Famalicão – Estrela Amadora27 December 20252-3
Famalicão – Estrela Amadora25 January 20250-0
Estrela Amadora – Famalicão19 August 20240-3
Famalicão – Estrela Amadora16 March 20240-0