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Primeira Liga · Matchday 22Sunday 14 February · 16:00 · Estádio Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas
Moreirense8th place
Rinvalo prediction0-2High confidence
Porto1st place
MOR 11%X 18%POR 70%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Porto lead by 281 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Porto 1.4, Moreirense -0.9.
  • Porto take 2.5 points per game away.
  • If Moreirense score first, they win 36% of the time
  • If Porto score first, they win 88% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals0.7 – 2.1
Over 2.552%
Both teams score44%
Likeliest score0-2
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
111%9.00X18%5.42270%1.42
Double chance
1X30%3.38X289%1.131282%1.23
Goals
Over 2.552%1.91Under 2.548%2.10BTTS yes44%2.29BTTS no56%1.78

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Moreirense · Columns: Porto0-2 probability 13.7%

Form

Compare →
PortoWWWWW

Head to head

Porto – Moreirense4 September 20262-1
Porto – Moreirense15 March 20263-0
Moreirense – Porto27 October 20251-2
Porto – Moreirense2 May 20253-1
Moreirense – Porto21 December 20240-3
Porto – Moreirense20 January 20245-0