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Primeira Liga · Matchday 22Sunday 14 February · 16:00 · Estádio da Luz
Benfica2nd place
Rinvalo prediction3-0High confidence
Marítimo14th place
BEN 85%X 11%MAR 4%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Benfica lead by 381 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Benfica 2.4 points per game, Marítimo 0.2.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Benfica 1.5, Marítimo -0.5.
  • If Benfica score first, they win 94% of the time
  • If Marítimo score first, they win 18% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 2%
Expected goals3.4 – 0.8
Over 2.579%
Both teams score53%
Likeliest score3-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
185%1.18X11%8.8824%23.81
Double chance
1X96%1.04X215%6.471289%1.13
Goals
Over 2.579%1.27Under 2.521%4.66BTTS yes53%1.87BTTS no47%2.15

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Benfica · Columns: Marítimo3-0 probability 9.9%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Marítimo – Benfica5 September 20260-3
Marítimo – Benfica12 March 20230-3
Benfica – Marítimo18 September 20225-0
Marítimo – Benfica30 April 20220-1
Benfica – Marítimo19 December 20217-1