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Primeira Liga · Matchday 8Sunday 11 October · 20:30 · Estádio Municipal de Arouca
Arouca5th place
Full time1-0Rinvalo's pick: 2-1✓ Result correct
Estrela Amadora12th place
ARO 52%X 26%EAM 22%

What does the market say?

AroucaDrawEstrela AmadoraRinvalo52%26%22%
Market44%27%28%

✓ Agree · both back Arouca

Prediction

Predicted: 2-1
Key factors
  • Arouca lead by 78 rating points.
  • Arouca take 2.1 points per game at home.
  • If Arouca score first, they win 77% of the time
  • If Estrela Amadora score first, they win 51% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.8 – 1.1
Over 2.556%
Both teams score57%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Arouca win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
152%1.92X26%3.80222%4.61
Double chance
1X78%1.28X248%2.081274%1.36
Goals
Over 2.556%1.78Under 2.544%2.27BTTS yes57%1.75BTTS no43%2.33

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Arouca · Columns: Estrela Amadora1-0 probability 8.9% · final score

Form

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Head to head

Arouca – Estrela Amadora11 October 20261-0
Arouca – Estrela Amadora19 April 20261-0
Estrela Amadora – Arouca7 December 20253-1
Arouca – Estrela Amadora19 April 20251-0
Estrela Amadora – Arouca9 December 20242-1
Arouca – Estrela Amadora5 May 20240-0