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Primeira Liga · Matchday 8Friday 9 October · 18:45 · Estádio Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas
Moreirense8th place
Full time0-1Rinvalo's pick: 0-1✓ Exact score
Gil Vicente9th place
MOR 29%X 29%GIL 42%

What does the market say?

MoreirenseDrawGil VicenteRinvalo29%29%42%
Market29%30%41%

✓ Agree · both back Gil Vicente

Prediction

Predicted: 0-1
Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Gil Vicente 0.1, Moreirense -0.6.
  • If Moreirense score first, they win 62% of the time
  • If Gil Vicente score first, they win 73% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 11%
Expected goals1.0 – 1.3
Over 2.541%
Both teams score47%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Gil Vicente win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
129%3.48X29%3.40242%2.39
Double chance
1X58%1.72X271%1.401271%1.42
Goals
Over 2.541%2.45Under 2.559%1.69BTTS yes47%2.11BTTS no53%1.90

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Moreirense · Columns: Gil Vicente0-1 probability 11.8% · final score

Form

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Head to head

Moreirense – Gil Vicente9 October 20260-1
Moreirense – Gil Vicente7 February 20261-2
Gil Vicente – Moreirense29 August 20252-0
Gil Vicente – Moreirense6 April 20250-1
Moreirense – Gil Vicente8 November 20243-2
Moreirense – Gil Vicente20 April 20240-1