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Primeira Liga · Matchday 8Monday 12 October · 20:15 · Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho
Famalicão11th place
Full time1-4Rinvalo's pick: 1-0✕ Missed
Alverca10th place
FAM 52%X 27%ALV 21%

What does the market say?

FamalicãoDrawAlvercaRinvalo52%27%21%
Market51%28%22%

✓ Agree · both back Famalicão

Prediction

Predicted: 1-0
Key factors
  • Famalicão lead by 87 rating points.
  • If Famalicão score first, they win 79% of the time
  • If Alverca score first, they win 54% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 10%
Expected goals1.5 – 0.9
Over 2.542%
Both teams score45%
Likeliest score1-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
152%1.93X27%3.66221%4.77
Double chance
1X79%1.27X248%2.071273%1.38
Goals
Over 2.542%2.40Under 2.558%1.71BTTS yes45%2.20BTTS no55%1.83

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Famalicão · Columns: Alverca1-4 probability 0.3% · final score

Form

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Head to head

Famalicão – Alverca12 October 20261-4
Famalicão – Alverca16 May 20261-0
Alverca – Famalicão4 January 20261-0