TR
Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Primeira Liga · Matchday 8Sunday 11 October · 15:30 · Estádio do Rio Ave FC
Rio Ave16th place
Full time3-2Rinvalo's pick: 1-0✓ Result correct
Nacional15th place
RAV 36%X 29%NAC 35%

What does the market say?

Rio AveDrawNacionalRinvalo36%29%35%
Market41%29%30%

✓ Agree · both back Rio Ave

Prediction

Predicted: 1-0
Key factors
  • Last 5 games: Rio Ave 0.8 points per game, Nacional 0.0.
  • If Rio Ave score first, they win 67% of the time
  • If Nacional score first, they win 66% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.3 – 1.2
Over 2.546%
Both teams score52%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Rio Ave win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
136%2.74X29%3.50235%2.86
Double chance
1X65%1.54X264%1.571271%1.40
Goals
Over 2.546%2.19Under 2.554%1.84BTTS yes52%1.93BTTS no48%2.08

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Rio Ave · Columns: Nacional3-2 probability 2.1% · final score

Form

Compare →
Rio AveDLWLL

Head to head

Rio Ave – Nacional11 October 20263-2
Nacional – Rio Ave25 January 20264-0
Rio Ave – Nacional17 August 20251-1
Nacional – Rio Ave10 May 20253-3
Rio Ave – Nacional29 December 20242-1