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Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Primeira Liga · Matchday 8Saturday 10 October · 20:30 · Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior
Casa Pia17th place
Full time0-1Rinvalo's pick: 0-1✓ Exact score
Santa Clara4th place
CPA 23%X 29%SCL 48%

What does the market say?

Casa PiaDrawSanta ClaraRinvalo23%29%48%
Market22%28%50%

✓ Agree · both back Santa Clara

Prediction

Predicted: 0-1
Key factors
  • Santa Clara lead by 141 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Santa Clara 2.2 points per game, Casa Pia 0.8.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Santa Clara 0.2, Casa Pia -0.5.
  • If Casa Pia score first, they win 58% of the time
  • If Santa Clara score first, they win 78% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 12%
Expected goals0.8 – 1.3
Over 2.537%
Both teams score43%
Likeliest score0-1
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
123%4.32X29%3.46248%2.09
Double chance
1X52%1.92X277%1.301271%1.41
Goals
Over 2.537%2.67Under 2.563%1.60BTTS yes43%2.32BTTS no57%1.76

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Casa Pia · Columns: Santa Clara0-1 probability 14.2% · final score

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Casa Pia – Santa Clara10 October 20260-1
Casa Pia – Santa Clara18 April 20260-0
Santa Clara – Casa Pia6 December 20251-0
Santa Clara – Casa Pia1 February 20252-1
Casa Pia – Santa Clara24 August 20240-2
Casa Pia – Santa Clara29 January 20232-1