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Primeira Liga · Matchday 8Sunday 11 October · 18:00 · Estádio da Luz
Benfica2nd place
Full time2-0Rinvalo's pick: 2-0✓ Exact score
Vitória de Guimarães13th place
BEN 74%X 18%VSC 9%

What does the market say?

BenficaDrawVitória de GuimarãesRinvalo74%18%9%
Market77%15%8%

✓ Agree · both back Benfica

Prediction

Predicted: 2-0
Key factors
  • Benfica lead by 278 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Benfica 2.4 points per game, Vitória de Guimarães 1.0.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Benfica 1.4, Vitória de Guimarães 0.4.
  • If Benfica score first, they win 89% of the time
  • If Vitória de Guimarães score first, they win 31% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals2.4 – 0.8
Over 2.562%
Both teams score49%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
174%1.36X18%5.6929%11.51
Double chance
1X91%1.10X226%3.811282%1.21
Goals
Over 2.562%1.62Under 2.538%2.60BTTS yes49%2.06BTTS no51%1.95

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Benfica · Columns: Vitória de Guimarães2-0 probability 12.3% · final score

Form

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Head to head

Benfica – Vitória de Guimarães11 October 20262-0
Benfica – Vitória de Guimarães21 March 20263-0
Vitória de Guimarães – Benfica1 November 20250-3
Vitória de Guimarães – Benfica19 April 20250-3
Benfica – Vitória de Guimarães7 December 20241-0
Vitória de Guimarães – Benfica11 February 20242-2