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Primeira Liga · Matchday 28Sunday 4 April · 16:00 · Estádio Municipal de Arouca
Arouca5th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Low confidence
Famalicão11th place
ARO 42%X 29%FAM 29%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Arouca take 2.2 points per game at home.
  • If Arouca score first, they win 72% of the time
  • If Famalicão score first, they win 62% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 10%
Expected goals1.3 – 1.1
Over 2.544%
Both teams score50%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Arouca win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
142%2.41X29%3.45229%3.40
Double chance
1X71%1.42X258%1.711271%1.41
Goals
Over 2.544%2.28Under 2.556%1.78BTTS yes50%2.00BTTS no50%2.00

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Arouca · Columns: Famalicão1-1 probability 13.8%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Famalicão – Arouca6 March 20261-0
Arouca – Famalicão5 October 20251-1
Arouca – Famalicão5 April 20251-2
Famalicão – Arouca9 November 20240-0
Arouca – Famalicão23 February 20243-2
Famalicão – Arouca22 September 20231-0