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Primeira Liga · Matchday 28Sunday 4 April · 16:00 · Estádio do Dragão
Porto1st place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Vitória de Guimarães13th place
POR 71%X 20%VSC 10%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Porto lead by 290 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Porto 3.0 points per game, Vitória de Guimarães 1.0.
  • Porto take 2.8 points per game at home.
  • If Porto score first, they win 89% of the time
  • If Vitória de Guimarães score first, they win 37% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals2.0 – 0.6
Over 2.548%
Both teams score39%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
171%1.42X20%5.04210%10.44
Double chance
1X90%1.11X229%3.401280%1.25
Goals
Over 2.548%2.08Under 2.552%1.93BTTS yes39%2.56BTTS no61%1.64

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Porto · Columns: Vitória de Guimarães2-0 probability 15.0%

Form

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Head to head

Vitória de Guimarães – Porto18 January 20260-1
Porto – Vitória de Guimarães11 August 20253-0
Porto – Vitória de Guimarães24 February 20251-1
Vitória de Guimarães – Porto21 September 20240-3
Porto – Vitória de Guimarães7 April 20241-2
Vitória de Guimarães – Porto11 November 20231-2