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Primeira Liga · Matchday 28Sunday 4 April · 16:00 · Estádio da Luz
Benfica2nd place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Estrela Amadora12th place
BEN 80%X 14%EAM 6%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Benfica lead by 340 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Benfica 2.4 points per game, Estrela Amadora 0.2.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Benfica 1.5, Estrela Amadora -0.1.
  • If Benfica score first, they win 92% of the time
  • If Estrela Amadora score first, they win 24% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 3%
Expected goals2.9 – 0.8
Over 2.571%
Both teams score51%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
180%1.25X14%7.0126%16.58
Double chance
1X94%1.06X220%4.931286%1.17
Goals
Over 2.571%1.41Under 2.529%3.43BTTS yes51%1.95BTTS no49%2.05

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Benfica · Columns: Estrela Amadora2-0 probability 10.7%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Benfica – Estrela Amadora25 January 20264-0
Estrela Amadora – Benfica16 August 20250-1
Estrela Amadora – Benfica2 February 20252-3
Benfica – Estrela Amadora24 August 20241-0
Estrela Amadora – Benfica29 January 20241-4
Benfica – Estrela Amadora19 August 20232-0