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Primeira Liga · Matchday 28Sunday 4 April · 16:00 · Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior
Casa Pia17th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Medium confidence
Alverca10th place
CPA 28%X 28%ALV 43%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Alverca lead by 89 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Alverca -0.3, Casa Pia -1.0.
  • If Casa Pia score first, they win 61% of the time
  • If Alverca score first, they win 73% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 10%
Expected goals1.0 – 1.3
Over 2.543%
Both teams score49%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Alverca win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
128%3.51X28%3.51243%2.32
Double chance
1X57%1.76X272%1.401272%1.40
Goals
Over 2.543%2.35Under 2.557%1.74BTTS yes49%2.05BTTS no51%1.95

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Casa Pia · Columns: Alverca1-1 probability 13.8%

Form

Compare →
AlvercaWWWLL

Head to head

Alverca – Casa Pia12 April 20263-1
Casa Pia – Alverca29 November 20250-2