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Primeira Liga · Matchday 12Saturday 28 November · 15:30 · Estádio Municipal de Arouca
Arouca5th place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Rio Ave16th place
ARO 60%X 24%RAV 16%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Arouca lead by 151 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Arouca 2.0 points per game, Rio Ave 0.8.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Arouca 0.0, Rio Ave -1.0.
  • If Arouca score first, they win 82% of the time
  • If Rio Ave score first, they win 45% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.9 – 0.9
Over 2.553%
Both teams score51%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-0 is the likeliest score within a Arouca win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
160%1.67X24%4.15216%6.27
Double chance
1X84%1.19X240%2.501276%1.32
Goals
Over 2.553%1.88Under 2.547%2.14BTTS yes51%1.95BTTS no49%2.05

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Arouca · Columns: Rio Ave1-1 probability 11.1%

Form

Compare →
AroucaLDWWW
Rio AveDLWLL

Head to head

Rio Ave – Arouca31 January 20260-3
Arouca – Rio Ave23 August 20253-3
Arouca – Rio Ave10 February 20251-1
Rio Ave – Arouca1 September 20241-0
Rio Ave – Arouca19 April 20241-1
Arouca – Rio Ave10 December 20232-2