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Primeira Liga · Matchday 12Saturday 28 November · 20:30 · Estádio D. Afonso Henriques
Vitória de Guimarães13th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Estrela Amadora12th place
VSC 52%X 27%EAM 22%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Vitória de Guimarães lead by 62 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Vitória de Guimarães 1.0 points per game, Estrela Amadora 0.2.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Vitória de Guimarães 0.6, Estrela Amadora -0.1.
  • If Vitória de Guimarães score first, they win 78% of the time
  • If Estrela Amadora score first, they win 53% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.6 – 1.0
Over 2.548%
Both teams score51%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Vitória de Guimarães win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
152%1.93X27%3.75222%4.64
Double chance
1X78%1.27X248%2.071273%1.36
Goals
Over 2.548%2.08Under 2.552%1.93BTTS yes51%1.97BTTS no49%2.03

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Vitória de Guimarães · Columns: Estrela Amadora1-1 probability 12.6%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Vitória de Guimarães – Estrela Amadora14 February 20262-1
Estrela Amadora – Vitória de Guimarães14 September 20250-2
Vitória de Guimarães – Estrela Amadora16 March 20252-0
Estrela Amadora – Vitória de Guimarães27 October 20242-2
Vitória de Guimarães – Estrela Amadora21 January 20243-0
Estrela Amadora – Vitória de Guimarães13 August 20230-1