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Primeira Liga · Matchday 12Monday 30 November · 20:15 · Estádio da Luz
Benfica2nd place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Famalicão11th place
BEN 72%X 19%FAM 10%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Benfica lead by 208 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Benfica 1.5, Famalicão -0.4.
  • Last 5 games: Benfica 2.4 points per game, Famalicão 1.4.
  • If Benfica score first, they win 89% of the time
  • If Famalicão score first, they win 34% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals2.2 – 0.7
Over 2.556%
Both teams score46%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
172%1.39X19%5.39210%10.45
Double chance
1X90%1.11X228%3.551281%1.23
Goals
Over 2.556%1.77Under 2.544%2.29BTTS yes46%2.19BTTS no54%1.84

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Benfica · Columns: Famalicão2-0 probability 13.2%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Famalicão – Benfica2 May 20262-2
Benfica – Famalicão22 December 20251-0
Benfica – Famalicão17 January 20254-0
Famalicão – Benfica11 August 20242-0
Famalicão – Benfica5 May 20242-0
Benfica – Famalicão29 December 20233-0