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Primeira Liga · Matchday 12Sunday 29 November · 20:30 · Estádio do Dragão
Porto1st place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Sporting CP3rd place
POR 43%X 28%SCP 29%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Last 5 games: Porto 3.0 points per game, Sporting CP 1.6.
  • Porto take 2.8 points per game at home.
  • Derby match.
  • If Porto score first, they win 71% of the time
  • If Sporting CP score first, they win 60% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.5 – 1.2
Over 2.549%
Both teams score54%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Porto win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
143%2.35X28%3.55229%3.42
Double chance
1X71%1.41X257%1.741272%1.39
Goals
Over 2.549%2.06Under 2.551%1.95BTTS yes54%1.87BTTS no46%2.15

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Porto · Columns: Sporting CP1-1 probability 13.2%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Porto – Sporting CP9 February 20261-1
Sporting CP – Porto30 August 20251-2
Porto – Sporting CP7 February 20251-1
Sporting CP – Porto31 August 20242-0
Porto – Sporting CP28 April 20242-2
Sporting CP – Porto18 December 20232-0