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Primeira Liga · Matchday 12Saturday 28 November · 15:30 · Estádio Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas
Moreirense8th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Medium confidence
Santa Clara4th place
MOR 28%X 30%SCL 42%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Santa Clara 0.3, Moreirense -0.9.
  • Santa Clara lead by 69 rating points.
  • Santa Clara take 1.8 points per game away.
  • If Moreirense score first, they win 62% of the time
  • If Santa Clara score first, they win 74% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 12%
Expected goals1.0 – 1.2
Over 2.538%
Both teams score45%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Santa Clara win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
128%3.55X30%3.35242%2.38
Double chance
1X58%1.72X272%1.391270%1.42
Goals
Over 2.538%2.61Under 2.562%1.62BTTS yes45%2.21BTTS no55%1.83

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Moreirense · Columns: Santa Clara1-1 probability 14.1%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Moreirense – Santa Clara24 January 20261-0
Santa Clara – Moreirense17 August 20250-1
Santa Clara – Moreirense9 March 20251-1
Moreirense – Santa Clara5 October 20241-0
Moreirense – Santa Clara22 January 20220-2
Santa Clara – Moreirense15 August 20212-2