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Premier League · Matchday 32Saturday 17 April · 15:00 · Emirates Stadium
Arsenal1st place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Aston Villa10th place
ARS 65%X 22%AVL 13%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Arsenal lead by 163 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Arsenal 0.9, Aston Villa -0.3.
  • Arsenal take 2.7 points per game at home.
  • If Arsenal score first, they win 86% of the time
  • If Aston Villa score first, they win 41% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.9 – 0.7
Over 2.550%
Both teams score45%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
165%1.54X22%4.52213%7.69
Double chance
1X87%1.15X235%2.851278%1.28
Goals
Over 2.550%2.01Under 2.550%1.99BTTS yes45%2.21BTTS no55%1.83

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Arsenal · Columns: Aston Villa2-0 probability 12.9%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Aston Villa – Arsenal31 August 20260-1
Arsenal – Aston Villa30 December 20254-1
Aston Villa – Arsenal6 December 20252-1
Arsenal – Aston Villa18 January 20252-2
Aston Villa – Arsenal24 August 20240-2
Arsenal – Aston Villa14 April 20240-2