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Premier League · Matchday 32Saturday 17 April · 15:00 · American Express Stadium
Brighton3rd place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Medium confidence
Chelsea4th place
BHA 53%X 25%CHE 22%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Brighton lead by 77 rating points.
  • Brighton take 2.2 points per game at home.
  • If Brighton score first, they win 77% of the time
  • If Chelsea score first, they win 50% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals1.9 – 1.2
Over 2.559%
Both teams score60%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Brighton win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
153%1.90X25%3.93222%4.58
Double chance
1X78%1.28X247%2.111275%1.34
Goals
Over 2.559%1.69Under 2.541%2.46BTTS yes60%1.68BTTS no40%2.47

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Brighton · Columns: Chelsea1-1 probability 11.1%

Form

Compare →
ChelseaLWWLW

Head to head

Chelsea – Brighton30 August 20264-3
Brighton – Chelsea21 April 20263-0
Chelsea – Brighton27 September 20251-3
Brighton – Chelsea14 February 20253-0
Chelsea – Brighton28 September 20244-2
Brighton – Chelsea15 May 20241-2