TR
Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Premier League · Matchday 32Saturday 17 April · 15:00 · Craven Cottage
Fulham15th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Sunderland20th place
FUL 48%X 28%SUN 24%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Last 5 games: Fulham 1.6 points per game, Sunderland 0.2.
  • Fulham lead by 64 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Fulham 0.3, Sunderland -0.2.
  • If Fulham score first, they win 77% of the time
  • If Sunderland score first, they win 57% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 10%
Expected goals1.4 – 0.9
Over 2.543%
Both teams score47%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Fulham win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
148%2.07X28%3.58224%4.20
Double chance
1X76%1.31X252%1.931272%1.39
Goals
Over 2.543%2.35Under 2.557%1.74BTTS yes47%2.11BTTS no53%1.90

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Fulham · Columns: Sunderland1-1 probability 13.4%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Sunderland – Fulham30 August 20261-0
Sunderland – Fulham22 February 20261-3
Fulham – Sunderland22 November 20251-0