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Premier League · Matchday 32Saturday 17 April · 15:00 · Brentford Community Stadium
Brentford6th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Leeds United11th place
BRE 45%X 28%LEE 27%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Last 5 games: Brentford 1.6 points per game, Leeds United 0.6.
  • If Brentford score first, they win 74% of the time
  • If Leeds United score first, they win 58% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.5 – 1.1
Over 2.547%
Both teams score52%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Brentford win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
145%2.21X28%3.56227%3.74
Double chance
1X73%1.36X255%1.831272%1.39
Goals
Over 2.547%2.13Under 2.553%1.89BTTS yes52%1.93BTTS no48%2.07

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Brentford · Columns: Leeds United1-1 probability 13.2%

Form

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Head to head

Leeds United – Brentford30 August 20261-1
Leeds United – Brentford21 March 20260-0
Brentford – Leeds United14 December 20251-1
Leeds United – Brentford22 January 20230-0
Brentford – Leeds United3 September 20225-2
Brentford – Leeds United22 May 20221-2