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Premier League · Matchday 28Wednesday 3 March · 20:00 · Emirates Stadium
Arsenal1st place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Crystal Palace18th place
ARS 75%X 17%CRY 8%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Arsenal lead by 278 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Arsenal 0.9, Crystal Palace -0.9.
  • Last 5 games: Arsenal 2.4 points per game, Crystal Palace 0.8.
  • If Arsenal score first, they win 91% of the time
  • If Crystal Palace score first, they win 31% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals2.3 – 0.6
Over 2.554%
Both teams score40%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
175%1.33X17%5.8928%13.11
Double chance
1X92%1.08X225%4.061283%1.20
Goals
Over 2.554%1.85Under 2.546%2.18BTTS yes40%2.51BTTS no60%1.66

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Arsenal · Columns: Crystal Palace2-0 probability 14.9%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Crystal Palace – Arsenal24 May 20261-2
Arsenal – Crystal Palace26 October 20251-0
Arsenal – Crystal Palace23 April 20252-2
Crystal Palace – Arsenal21 December 20241-5
Arsenal – Crystal Palace20 January 20245-0
Crystal Palace – Arsenal21 August 20230-1