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Premier League · Matchday 28Wednesday 3 March · 20:00 · American Express Stadium
Brighton3rd place
Rinvalo prediction1-0High confidence
Fulham15th place
BHA 57%X 25%FUL 18%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Brighton lead by 128 rating points.
  • Brighton take 2.2 points per game at home.
  • If Brighton score first, they win 81% of the time
  • If Fulham score first, they win 48% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.8 – 0.9
Over 2.551%
Both teams score51%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Brighton win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
157%1.76X25%4.00218%5.49
Double chance
1X82%1.22X243%2.311275%1.33
Goals
Over 2.551%1.98Under 2.549%2.02BTTS yes51%1.97BTTS no49%2.03

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Brighton · Columns: Fulham1-1 probability 11.8%

Form

Compare →
FulhamDLWWD

Head to head

Fulham – Brighton24 January 20262-1
Brighton – Fulham16 August 20251-1
Brighton – Fulham8 March 20252-1
Fulham – Brighton5 December 20243-1
Fulham – Brighton2 March 20243-0
Brighton – Fulham29 October 20231-1