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Premier League · Matchday 28Wednesday 3 March · 20:00 · Anfield
Liverpool5th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Medium confidence
Aston Villa10th place
LIV 51%X 26%AVL 23%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Liverpool 0.5, Aston Villa -0.3.
  • If Liverpool score first, they win 76% of the time
  • If Aston Villa score first, they win 52% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.8 – 1.1
Over 2.555%
Both teams score56%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Liverpool win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
151%1.96X26%3.84223%4.37
Double chance
1X77%1.30X249%2.051274%1.35
Goals
Over 2.555%1.83Under 2.545%2.21BTTS yes56%1.77BTTS no44%2.29

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Liverpool · Columns: Aston Villa1-1 probability 11.9%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Aston Villa – Liverpool15 May 20264-2
Liverpool – Aston Villa1 November 20252-0
Aston Villa – Liverpool19 February 20252-2
Liverpool – Aston Villa9 November 20242-0
Aston Villa – Liverpool13 May 20243-3
Liverpool – Aston Villa3 September 20233-0