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Premier League · Matchday 28Wednesday 3 March · 20:00 · Etihad Stadium
Manchester City2nd place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Everton7th place
MCI 65%X 22%EVE 13%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Manchester City lead by 182 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Manchester City 0.6, Everton -0.1.
  • Manchester City take 2.2 points per game at home.
  • If Manchester City score first, they win 85% of the time
  • If Everton score first, they win 41% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.9 – 0.8
Over 2.551%
Both teams score47%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
165%1.55X22%4.51213%7.51
Double chance
1X87%1.15X235%2.821278%1.28
Goals
Over 2.551%1.96Under 2.549%2.04BTTS yes47%2.15BTTS no53%1.87

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Manchester City · Columns: Everton2-0 probability 12.6%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Everton – Manchester City4 May 20263-3
Manchester City – Everton18 October 20252-0
Everton – Manchester City19 April 20250-2
Manchester City – Everton26 December 20241-1
Manchester City – Everton10 February 20242-0
Everton – Manchester City27 December 20231-3