TR
Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Premier League · Matchday 28Wednesday 3 March · 20:00 · City Ground
Nottingham Forest19th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Newcastle United12th place
NFO 46%X 27%NEW 27%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Nottingham Forest 0.6, Newcastle United -0.6.
  • If Nottingham Forest score first, they win 73% of the time
  • If Newcastle United score first, they win 57% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.6 – 1.1
Over 2.551%
Both teams score55%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Nottingham Forest win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
146%2.16X27%3.71227%3.74
Double chance
1X73%1.37X254%1.861273%1.37
Goals
Over 2.551%1.95Under 2.549%2.06BTTS yes55%1.81BTTS no45%2.23

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Nottingham Forest · Columns: Newcastle United1-1 probability 12.7%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Nottingham Forest – Newcastle United10 May 20261-1
Newcastle United – Nottingham Forest5 October 20252-0
Newcastle United – Nottingham Forest23 February 20254-3
Nottingham Forest – Newcastle United10 November 20241-3
Nottingham Forest – Newcastle United10 February 20242-3
Newcastle United – Nottingham Forest26 December 20231-3