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Premier League · Matchday 28Wednesday 3 March · 20:00 · Stadium of Light
Sunderland20th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Medium confidence
Manchester United17th place
SUN 29%X 27%MUN 44%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Manchester United lead by 94 rating points.
  • If Sunderland score first, they win 59% of the time
  • If Manchester United score first, they win 72% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.2 – 1.5
Over 2.549%
Both teams score54%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Manchester United win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
129%3.46X27%3.69244%2.27
Double chance
1X56%1.79X271%1.411273%1.37
Goals
Over 2.549%2.03Under 2.551%1.98BTTS yes54%1.85BTTS no46%2.17

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Sunderland · Columns: Manchester United1-1 probability 13.1%

Form

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Head to head

Sunderland – Manchester United9 May 20260-0
Manchester United – Sunderland4 October 20252-0