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Premier League · Matchday 22Saturday 23 January · 15:00 · Emirates Stadium
Arsenal1st place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Newcastle United12th place
ARS 69%X 20%NEW 11%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Arsenal lead by 202 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Arsenal 0.9, Newcastle United -0.6.
  • Arsenal take 2.7 points per game at home.
  • If Arsenal score first, they win 88% of the time
  • If Newcastle United score first, they win 36% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals2.1 – 0.7
Over 2.555%
Both teams score46%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
169%1.44X20%5.01211%9.43
Double chance
1X89%1.12X231%3.271280%1.25
Goals
Over 2.555%1.83Under 2.545%2.20BTTS yes46%2.17BTTS no54%1.85

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Arsenal · Columns: Newcastle United2-0 probability 13.1%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Arsenal – Newcastle United25 April 20261-0
Newcastle United – Arsenal28 September 20251-2
Arsenal – Newcastle United18 May 20251-0
Newcastle United – Arsenal2 November 20241-0
Arsenal – Newcastle United24 February 20244-1
Newcastle United – Arsenal4 November 20231-0