TR
Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Premier League · Matchday 22Saturday 23 January · 15:00 · Craven Cottage
Fulham15th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Low confidence
Aston Villa9th place
FUL 39%X 28%AVL 32%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Fulham 0.3, Aston Villa -0.3.
  • If Fulham score first, they win 69% of the time
  • If Aston Villa score first, they win 63% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.3 – 1.2
Over 2.547%
Both teams score53%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Fulham win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
139%2.55X28%3.53232%3.08
Double chance
1X68%1.48X261%1.651272%1.39
Goals
Over 2.547%2.13Under 2.553%1.89BTTS yes53%1.90BTTS no47%2.11

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Fulham · Columns: Aston Villa1-1 probability 13.5%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Aston Villa – Fulham31 October 20261-1
Fulham – Aston Villa25 April 20261-0
Aston Villa – Fulham28 September 20253-1
Aston Villa – Fulham3 May 20251-0
Fulham – Aston Villa19 October 20241-3
Fulham – Aston Villa17 February 20241-2