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Premier League · Matchday 22Saturday 23 January · 15:00 · Old Trafford
Manchester United17th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Low confidence
Liverpool5th place
MUN 38%X 27%LIV 35%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Derby match.
  • If Manchester United score first, they win 66% of the time
  • If Liverpool score first, they win 63% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.5 – 1.4
Over 2.555%
Both teams score59%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Manchester United win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
138%2.62X27%3.67235%2.90
Double chance
1X65%1.53X262%1.621273%1.37
Goals
Over 2.555%1.81Under 2.545%2.24BTTS yes59%1.69BTTS no41%2.46

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Manchester United · Columns: Liverpool1-1 probability 12.4%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Manchester United – Liverpool3 May 20263-2
Liverpool – Manchester United19 October 20251-2
Liverpool – Manchester United5 January 20252-2
Manchester United – Liverpool1 September 20240-3
Manchester United – Liverpool7 April 20242-2
Liverpool – Manchester United17 December 20230-0