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Premier League · Matchday 22Saturday 23 January · 15:00 · American Express Stadium
Brighton3rd place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Low confidence
Manchester City2nd place
BHA 34%X 27%MCI 39%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Manchester City lead by 67 rating points.
  • Manchester City take 2.1 points per game away.
  • If Brighton score first, they win 62% of the time
  • If Manchester City score first, they win 67% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.4 – 1.5
Over 2.555%
Both teams score59%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Manchester City win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
134%2.96X27%3.68239%2.56
Double chance
1X61%1.64X266%1.511273%1.37
Goals
Over 2.555%1.82Under 2.545%2.22BTTS yes59%1.70BTTS no41%2.43

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Brighton · Columns: Manchester City1-1 probability 12.4%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Manchester City – Brighton31 October 20260-1
Manchester City – Brighton7 January 20261-1
Brighton – Manchester City31 August 20252-1
Manchester City – Brighton15 March 20252-2
Brighton – Manchester City9 November 20242-1
Brighton – Manchester City25 April 20240-4